I know the point of this type of drafting is to get rid of the most of the speculation, but I think it's impossible to completely remove it from the equation. Some things change significantly over the off season and I think it's worth mentioning those things for you to take into account when drafting your players. So in the following blog I will cover those players who either won't show up in the draft orders due to injury or rookie status and players who have experienced a significant change in environment for you to consider when drafting. You should still stick as closely to the draft orders generated by the draft machine but I don't want you drafting players that have little chance of repeating the same performance as they did last year.

I constantly hear "experts" talking about how they rank players up or down based on the schedule they have. However I would like to show you why SOS is a bunk statistic to use when considering draft picks. The chart you will find below contains data about 40 NFL players over the past 3 years and places their fantasy points (1 being the highest fantasy score) vs SOS. If there were any correlation between fantasy score and SOS you would find what looks like a line from the bottom left corner to the top right. The reason would be that the majority of fantasy scores should be low in high SOS years and high in low SOS years. Instead what we find is a pretty straight line across the graph, with a grouping in the HIGH SOS and HIGH score section of the graph. What does this mean? It means you should ignore SOS when considering who to pick and anyone who uses it as a metric for determining draft orders is wrong.

Ok it wouldn't be a new year without some new charts! Here is a chart of some fantasy values over age of players. It looks like players follow a pattern not really based on age but based on time starting, check it out here. Hard to find many players that have more than 2 years of increasing fantasy value no matter what age, something to think a bout

Payton Manning - Well he beat the super bowl slump, and his numbers have been growing slightly over the past few years. You can probably count on him to produce the same numbers he did last year this year. Update: Neck injury could be an issue, still unsure of his status for the first game.

Jay Cutler - Over the past few years he has been steadily dropping in his fantasy production.

Donavan McNabb - I predicted he would have a good year last year and it was a mess, he has had 2 bad seasons in a row and you can't even be sure about his status as the starter. Update: Signed with Vikings, I don't know what this means to his value as he wasn't able to produce in Washington but maybe put him on your bench and see?

Philip Rivers - You can't really call it a sleeper pick but I do believe he will be the #1 fantasy QB this season and you can still get him in later rounds compared to the Brees, Manning, Brady crowd.

Ben Roethlesberger - He missed 4 games last year so you can expect him to return to top 10 QB form this year.

Matt Cassel - If he follows pattern he should have better year this year than he did last year.

Tony Romo - He may not be winner but he puts up some great fantasy numbers, and he's got weapons.

Matt Hasselbeck - Signed with Titans, this definitely increases his value slightly, makes him a great option for your bench.

Chad Ochostinko - Stinko no more, he's going to be the #1 target for Tom Brady. I just don't see how this doesn't work! Look what they did with Randy Moss, buying high on Ocho!

Larry Fitzgerald - His fantasy value peaked 2 years ago, it is hard to say it but his pattern right now looks like he's tanking. Update: New QB Kolb can do nothing but make Fitz better, his fantasy numbers look to have peaked but now they could be way up.

Steve Smith - The Carolina one has had steadily declining numbers for years.

Steve Smith - The Giants one has headed to the Eagles.

Vincent Jackson - Expect him to come back and be the go-to-guy for Rivers in what I think will be the #1 QB-WR combo this year.

Miles Austin - With Romo back expect great things from Austin again.

Dez Bryant - He showed some great potential last year in 2 areas, as a WR and as the most troubled player in the NFL. He seemed brittle on the field and has clearly let his personal life get out of control. You can take a chance on him but buyer beware.

Randy Moss - Just in case you are under a rock, he is retired.

Terrell Owens - Off season surgery and no team, stick him on a bench if you have plenty of room and no other options. Update: Still no team but says he should be ready to go a few weeks into the season.

Plaxico Burress - Joined the Jets, certainly worth a shot as a #2 WR on your team.

Kenny Britt - could be up for a long suspension. Update: Cleared, will not get in any trouble for what he did this off season.

Arian Foster - Up to this point there hasn't been a need to address his hamstring issue, however it is a confirmed tear. This could be something that bothers him all season, if you do take him get Tate his backup. The experts are only dropping him one spot so he will remain #1 in my value based draft orders, however I would not take him #1.

Chris Johnson - I guess it is time to talk about the contract holdout. Update:He signed his big extention, but he hasn't been practicing. The only concern here is the hamstring, we've seen this long hold outs before result in some early season injury issues, it all depends on how he has taken care of himself. Still I guess you have to go with him as the #2 or #3 RB now.

Thomas Jones - Right now it looks like the will continue to run the same system they did last year..

Tim Hightower - Looks to be the starting RB in Washington. The up side is it's a Shanahan offense so lots of running, the down side it's Shanahan, he rotates and screws with RBs more than anyone, he don't even tell you who is starting each week.

Jones-Drew - After a somewhat down year last year expect him to return to form this year..

Deangelo Williams - His numbers have steadily declined, it might be time to give up on this guy. Update: Experts are giving him alot of credit, and ranking him high, but mock drafts are having him go in about the 6th round.

Michael Turner - He had his "sophomore" dip and was be back to form last year and on the upswing, expect his numbers to be better than last year.

Jamaal Charles - Best RB in the league. Everyone is waiting for them to unleash this guy, especially in fantasy. His average yard per rush is sick. Based on the results from last year you would not expect much of a change in plans from the coach so his numbers should be about the same unless there is an injury to either him or one of the other RBs.

Ryan Mathews - Rough first year, he was up and down, and his ups were only slightly up. You should be able to expect a better year from him this year than last but who knows.

Jahvid Best - At least I was right about him last year! He was a better pick than Mathews and he was gotten late in the draft, however he was no gem. He flashed of some really good things but much like Mathews had injury issues. Once again I would take him over Mathews and get him later. Update: With the rookie they brought in to share time with him out for the season Best should be given his "best" chance to be a fantasy producer. You don't want him as your #1 RB but in a pinch #2 works.

Mikel LeShoure - Gone for the season DO NOT DRAFT.

Pierre Thomas - We just don't know what is going to happen with Ingram. Do you draft a RB in the first round, and trade up to get him, without plans to play him? Probably not so Pierre might be found more often at Cafe Dumonde than in the end zone this year.

Marion Barber - It is official, stick the fork in him he's done. If he somehow gets traded to a team with real need his value may increase but now he's almost worthless. Cowboys drafted a RB, Felix is due for a good year, Tashard isn't going anywhere, so who is odd man out? Update: Now a member of the Bears, I had big hopes for Forte this year but now he has an offical TD vulture.

Ronnie Brown - Ronnie is great when healthy, but he never stays healthy, plus they have a new RB in the stable. Based on relatively pedestrian numbers last year I would expect about the same out of him this year. Update: Now an Eagle, he's too good not to play. He's going to take production away from McCoy and could be a nice bye week player for you.

Marshawn Lynch - For whatever reason they traded Beast Mode away, his fantasy numbers have been growing. It is possible he could have a very good or even break out year this year if they feature him.

LeSean McCoy -Man did I blow it on this guy last year. Very good fantasy numbers. I still don't trust him but you gotta go with what he did last year. Update: Has Ronnie Brown behind him now, you would think it is a two headed running attack now and if I had to guess at who is the one running in the TDs it would be Brown.

Darren McFadden - Finally showed his abilities last year. You hate taking a Raider but he did very well when healthy last year.

Reggie Bush - Traded to Miami, not sure this makes a huge difference for his value but it is clear Brown or Williams are odd man out. Update: Both were odd men out AND Bush is getting alot of work in the preseason.

Mark Ingram - The exit of Bush from NO definitely increases the value of Ingram in your draft. He shouldn't be a start for you unless you start 3 RBs but he will be a nice bench addition later in the draft. (or a bonus if someone takes him early leaving some prime RB for you) Update:Bush is gone Ingram value up, getting the goal line carries in preseason.

Ricky Williams - Now on the Ravens in the backup role to Ray Rice. They have shown they like to give the ball to someone else near the end zone in the past so in a TD league Willaims could be decent. Now what this does for the value of Ray Rice is unknown, he had 2 TD vulture last year so I wouldn't expect much different.

Ryan Grant - I have been waiting to see what happened with the Grant, how things change week to week, he is now in danger of being kicked off the team! I'm sure he will land someplace but still he is clearly off limits.

Ryan Williams - The Arizona rookie is done for the season, I guess you can consider Mr. Wells an option...

Cedric Benson - Going to jail for a few weeks in the middle of the season, looks like he will miss one game. Update:Did his time now, shouldn't miss and games.

Rashad Jennings - out for season DO NOT DRAFT.

Brandon Jackson - out for season DO NOT DRAFT.

Chris Ivory - will miss at least 6 games.

Chris Cooley - Returned to form last year in a putrid offense.

Jermichael Finley - He was poised to have a great season then got injured, let's do the speculate on great season from him 2.0 prediction now.

Jason Witten - With Romo back his production should suffer. Romo likes his WRs especially in the end zone.

Greg Olsen - Traded to Carolina, rookie QBs love the TE and he is a damn good one.

Antonio Gates - Put on the PUP list, missed 6 games with this injury last year.

Tony Moeaki - out for season DO NOT DRAFT.

Garrett Hartley - Will miss at least 6 weeks.

Defenses have just become to inconsistent year to year to try and predict how they will perform.